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Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Thursday, July 23, 2009
7/23/09
This Journal will chart spot Forex trades for the Eur/Usd.
I've been trading the Eur/Usd for a while and have been averaging 7% gains per week, using good money management.
Please follow along and leave comments. Thanks!
Well we're coming off a large top where the 1.4300 has been thoroughly tested and rejected.
My general bias on this pair has been Bearish for quite some time so naturally I made money on the move down.
Currently we're seeing PA (Price Action) hover right above 1.4140. This is a critical level, above this number has been very hard to sustain historically.
I would have expected more a retracement from the latest downmove, and it may still retrace before breaking 1.4140 convincingly. Maybe quite a bit.
I took a small SELL position at 1.4150, leaving room for the price to retrace up to possibly 1.4215.
This is my trading style. I don't put everything into one trade. I trade in clusters. One trade is part of a larger group of trades, and to me hasn't failed until the entire group has failed.
A group of trades is based on an outlook, or a scenario which I form. When I'm convinced the scenario has failed, then the group has failed, and I've lost the round. This has yet to happen.
So what's the current scenario?
1.4300 has been tested and rejected. This is a blow to the bulls, party's over. Historically when tops over 1.4140 sell off we get big drops below 1.4140, another 200 to 400 points. So to fail at 1.4300 is one thing, and to break back down below 1.4140 is another. The latter will follow the former, its just a question of how much nonsense we are going to see in between. This allows for rises into the low 4200's, but not for more serious retests of 1.4300. If that happens, scenario has failed and I've lost the round.
Key levels to watch: 1.4180-second entry area for sells. 1.4215, third entry zone for sells.
With this style of trading good MM is the key.
Current Position: SHORT @ 1.4152, will add short @1.4180, 1.4215
Thats all for now.
This Journal will chart spot Forex trades for the Eur/Usd.
I've been trading the Eur/Usd for a while and have been averaging 7% gains per week, using good money management.
Please follow along and leave comments. Thanks!
Well we're coming off a large top where the 1.4300 has been thoroughly tested and rejected.
My general bias on this pair has been Bearish for quite some time so naturally I made money on the move down.
Currently we're seeing PA (Price Action) hover right above 1.4140. This is a critical level, above this number has been very hard to sustain historically.
I would have expected more a retracement from the latest downmove, and it may still retrace before breaking 1.4140 convincingly. Maybe quite a bit.
I took a small SELL position at 1.4150, leaving room for the price to retrace up to possibly 1.4215.
This is my trading style. I don't put everything into one trade. I trade in clusters. One trade is part of a larger group of trades, and to me hasn't failed until the entire group has failed.
A group of trades is based on an outlook, or a scenario which I form. When I'm convinced the scenario has failed, then the group has failed, and I've lost the round. This has yet to happen.
So what's the current scenario?
1.4300 has been tested and rejected. This is a blow to the bulls, party's over. Historically when tops over 1.4140 sell off we get big drops below 1.4140, another 200 to 400 points. So to fail at 1.4300 is one thing, and to break back down below 1.4140 is another. The latter will follow the former, its just a question of how much nonsense we are going to see in between. This allows for rises into the low 4200's, but not for more serious retests of 1.4300. If that happens, scenario has failed and I've lost the round.
Key levels to watch: 1.4180-second entry area for sells. 1.4215, third entry zone for sells.
With this style of trading good MM is the key.
Current Position: SHORT @ 1.4152, will add short @1.4180, 1.4215
Thats all for now.
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